DCspectator

Clouds of Doubt Settle Over Head of MN Sec. of State Mark Ritchie

On Election Day, Senate GOP incumbent Norm Coleman squeezed out a 721 vote victory against former funnyman Al Franken.

As scattered votes from the DFL strongholds of the Iron Range – and in particular, Duluth – rolled in with almost uncanny timing throughout the early and late morning hours of November 5th, Al Franken – recognizing that no amount of potentially "held back" ballots from Duluth would allow him victory – elected to hold a news conference proclaiming it was time for a recount.

Franken's lawyer, former U.S. Attorney and highly partisan DFL legal operative, David Lillehaug, stood in front of the cameras with all of the sincerity of a guy looking to "alter" an election result, and said: "I expect that there will be not just lawyers but people with experience in recounts and thoughts on it because there are many people, not just in Minnesota, but around the country that believe that Al Franken would be the best senator for the state of Minnesota."

Democrat Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) Chair Chuck Schumer, very temporary resident Al Franken, and a host of other Democratic activists and interest groups from around the nation, intend to do one simple thing:

They intend to alter the results of this election and hand it to Al Franken.

What’s worse is that they appear to have a willing accomplice: Minnesota Secretary of State Mark Ritchie.

Ritchie is a partisan Democrat. He is a graduate of the Wellstone Alliance political action camps – and, is one of the most strongly endorsed ACORN candidates in the country.

Instead of performing his duties to uphold the law and secure ballots immediately after the election, Ritchie proceeded to tell anyone who would listen just how perfect the election went.

Until, of course, the Franken campaign complained about “irregularities.”

Keep in mind, not a single one of the irregularities that Franken and his Attorney have concocted have any bearing on a recount. But they were enough to unnerve their political cohort, Ritchie, into starting to backtrack about his vaunted “perfect” election system.

On a recent Minnesota Public Radio show – instead of pounding his chest about the great election his office ran – Ritchie began to echo the Franken campaign line that there may indeed be some problems with the results. That was a quick change of heart.

But, so concerned is he that when it was revealed that a small city in the DFL bastion of Mountain Iron suddenly “identified” 100 votes for Barack Obama (and, wouldn’t you know it, 100 votes for Al Franken) that he said nothing – except to point his fingers at the Coleman campaign for having the audacity to wonder aloud about how such an egregious event could have happened.

And, when a City elections supervisor in Minneapolis “found” 32 absentee ballots, it wasn’t Ritchie who sounded the alarm and wondered why 72 hours had passed since the election.

Instead, it was left to the Coleman campaign to step up and go to court to uphold the laws that Ritchie was elected to uphold.

With 48 hours left before the end of the process that allows election officials to “clean up” the numbers they reported on election day – it’s clear that Coleman’s lead has taken a questionable hit -- and, as a result so has Ritchie’s credibility.

Any other Secretary of State would have been alarmed at the unusual shifts in vote totals that have taken place since the Tuesday election. Ritchie has expressed no such alarm. Instead, he’s remained silient as his political associate, Al Franken and his Democratic allies, attempt to alter and change the rules of the game.

Minnesotans re-elected Norm Coleman fair and square -- even after all the gloating from the DSCC and the Franken campaign, who told anyone who'd listen that the race was over.

But, the process that Ritchie has allowed to unfold is intended to do a number of things:

First, is to raise doubts in people’s minds about the results. More than likely, when the official recount begins, and ends, Coleman’s lead will be significant enough to cause serious questions about Ritchie’s role in what is becoming a partisan charade inconsistent with the Minnesota tradition of total integrity and transparency.

Second, Franken and Schumer intend to perpetrate any legal ruse necessary to thwart the will of the people of Minnesota. If that means asking for multiple recounts, that is exactly what they will do.

Third, Franken and his temporary political cronies (Franken will undoubtedly soon move back to New York City) want this election decided on the floor of the United States Senate.

Watch out, Minnesota. There's definitely scheming going on behind closed doors to change the outcome of the election -- to have a "do-over", and the guy at the center of the crime is none other than Secretary of State Mark Ritchie.

Tom McClintic

McCain Big GOP Winner Coming Out of Iowa Caucus

While he didn't even compete in Iowa, John McCain is the big winner tonight as the Iowa Caucus results unfold -- and as Mitt Romney takes a big hit from Mike Huckabee in the run-up to the New Hampshire primary.

McCain couldn't have scripted it any better: a weakened, vulnerable Romney will now stagger into New Hampshire, and the Arizona maverick has his Massachusetts nemesis in the cross-hairs, and engendering a double dose of disdain to boot. While Huckabee will move on to regroup for South Carolina, the McCain-Romney showdown is a struggle that will almost certainly end up in death for the loser. Romney, like George H.W. Bush and Ronald Reagan before him, has his back to the wall.

McCain also handled the media spin perfectly: as soon as Huckabee was declared the Iowa winner just after 9pm EST, McCain was in New Hampshire before the cameras congratulating Huckabee and slamming Romney. He seized the moment as well as the high ground by lambasting Romney as the negative campaigner whose ad effort backfired against Huck.

Tonite is also a bad night for the GOP establishment, who must now contend with the possibility that McCain, of all people, may have to rescue the GOP from Huckabee, who will never be embraced as a presdiential standard-bearer.

The big GOP consultant winners tonite are Rick Davis and Mark McKinnon with McCain, who stuck with McCain when he was declared a walking corpse earlier this year.

New McCain Offensive on Romney Keeps Rudy Above Fray

With the resurgent campaign of John McCain (still more hype than reality, but there is indeed some incremental movement) laying the wood to Mitt Romney as an unprincipled liberal flip-flopper, the chief beneficiary is none other than Rudy Giuliani.

There appears to be a mindset established over the past two weeks or so in which the GOP field is accepting the fact, reluctantly, that Giuliani is indeed being institutionalized as the front runner -- especially as the latest FEC data is closely analyzed. Meanwhile, the rest of the field is begining to cannibalize itself in the hope of becoming the number two canddiate -- the perch upon which to theoretically launch an all out assault on Rudy.

Romney, still in a strong position but looking a bit wobbly of late -- especially compared to Rudy -- had hoped to begin chopping the former New York mayor down to size at about this time. Instead, he's under assault from McCain and to a lesser extent, Fred Thompson.

Bottom line: Rudy gets more time to consolidate his front-runner standing at this critical juncture in the campaign while Romney must fend-off the dogs. The other good news for Rudy is it appears Bernie Kerik is looking to come to an accomodation with prosecutors. The Rudy-Bernie stories are still on their way, but a plea deal would mitigate some of the damage.

The big losers at the moment: Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson, who, inexplicably, continues to offer no rationale for his candidacy -- and other than throwing out an ill-advised prpposal to cut social security benefits continues to be a newsmaking wallflower on the campaign trail.

Giuliani Slips on Social Security Tax Increase Banana Peel

Rudy Giuliani's AP interview bylined yesterday by Liz Sidoti and Libby Quaid is starting to look like there'll be a need to "re-explain" his view -- dangerous that it is if it stands -- that a tax increase might be needed to shore up Social Security.

Here's the offending article excerpt:

Giuliani "refused to rule out raising taxes to offset a Social Security shortfall. He said he would assemble a bipartisan group to develop ideas for fixing Social Security, perhaps even before his inauguration. "I am opposed to tax increases, but I would look at whatever proposal they came up with and try to figure out how we can come up with a bipartisan way to do it,'' Giuliani said, adding that potential solutions must come from both parties. "The reality is, I'm more concerned about Medicare and Medicaid than I am with Social Security, because I'm pretty sure we can solve Social Security.''

McCain "Comeback" Storyline About to Punch Through

There's enough anecdotal and real evidence in terms of an incremental polling uptick that it's inevitable the NYT, WP, WSJ or other opinion-leader will write a trend-setting "John McCain's Back" story very, very soon.

To help this along, the McCain campaign is spinning the John Kerry 2004 Iowa comeback analogy, which is somewhat overstated, but that's a good enough hook into the inevitable McCain comeback storyline.

The press wants to write it -- especially as Thompson, Romney and, now, Giuliani, encounter a few roadbumps. Seems like some of those drifting to Fred when he initially jumped in are moving over, or, back to McCain. As long as Iraq situation continues to "improve", and immigration and campaign finance reform are out of the news, the "comeback" or perception thereof will be an emerging storyline.

But you make your own luck, and the McCain guys are doing so.

Batter Up: Bush Steps Up to Hammer Backpedaling MoveOn.org

This was one of those seminal days in Washington, where a hard-core political attack by an ideologically-aligned group finally backfires under the weight of time and scrutiny. Washington lives for this.

President Bush, sensing the moment of perfect timing, gleefully and in a clearly pre-scripted manner, hammered MoveOn.org's ill-considered (after the fact) Petraeus/Betray Us NYT print ad at the same time Senate Dems were forced to vote on a "sense of the senate resolution" condemning MoveOn.org.

The verdict is in: Bush scored a direct hit today and the Senate Dems ran for the tall grass en masse.

Meanwhile, Eli Pariser, finally smoked out and required to go on camera to defend his deteriorating situation, was busy on the cable talk shows this afternoon and this evening slip-sliding through interviews, clearly on the defensive.

Rudy milked this first and set the stage for Bush to pile on -- a rare example this year of something going right for us as a Party.

As dysfuntional we as Republicans are at the moment, thank heavens for the incompetence of MoveOn.org, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid.

Rudy Giuliani Versus MoveOn.org -- Rudy in a K.O.

As this Rudy-MoveOn.org fracas continues to unfold, this slugfest is becoming a mismatch. Giuliani is milking this to the max in Iowa with paid advertising slamming weak, "anti-war liberals".

They should bump the radio up to TV.

"But wait" say some observers (all inside the beltway): MoveOn has upped their tv buy slamming Rudy for being AWOL from the Iraq Study Group, and this will severely damage Rudy.

The "Iraq Study Group"?...

That's reminiscent of Al Gore famously slamming George W. Bush for being against "Norwood-Dingell" during the 2000 debates....

It's all DC, inside the beltway blather.

So Giuliani was AWOL from the ISG?... and Bush was against "Norwood-Dingell"?...

Alert the media.

This just proves Eli Pariser and his group have a tin ear.

Giuliani has already won this skirmish with a decisive K.O. -- everything else is gravy.

Fred Thompson Smartly Avoids NH Debate; Activists Await Rationale for Candidacy, Plausible Conservative Message

With all the brouhaha and negative cable news coverage regarding candidate-in-waiting Fred Thompson's decision to skip tonight's Fox News New Hampshire debate in favor of a Jay Leno appearance in Hollywood, and how it’s going to “hurt” him – that’s all a total crock.

In fact, it's a solid strategic move for several reasons:

First, by going on Leno, he becomes an official candidate strictly on his own terms -- and in the safest possible soft ball venue; strategically, why be one of a handful of candidates fighting for coverage when you can have your own separate coverage that is part of a bigger storyline?

Second, the post-debate news coverage -- which matters more than the debate itself -- will, again, feature Thompson as his own story on Leno (with a nice process angle featuring his online announcement as a bonus) while the other GOP debate combatants will be fighting among themselves for space in print, broadcast and cable stories. And if they attack Thompson at the debate, all the better.

Third, those folks in NH who will be purportedly “offended” by Thompson's debate no show will be the first ones to glom on to him when he, presumably, earns a poll bounce from the announcement blitz. Much of Thompson's appeal is a result of dissatisfaction with the GOP field, and he is a relatively empty vessel to which loosely-affiliated GOP partisans (and there are many) can gravitate.

After Leno and the New Hampshire debate, Thompson then shows up in Iowa as the fresh new story and a blank slate upon which to sketch out his nascent message.

This is not to say Fred Thompson has it easy. After plenty of summer bungling and staff turmoil, he finally has some experienced people in place, and it already shows -- considering the developing general good vibe around his announcement tour. As for the staff turnover, in particular within the communications apparatus, the recent dismissals of those with no or minimal campaign experience was sorely needed. You know the names. Kudos to new management for dealing with it. No experience in the most unkind, highest skill-level environment? Forget it.

Regardless, Thompson has much to prove, and he must do so quickly. His people know that; his GOP opponents know that (and have definitely laid some land mines out there for Thompson to step on); the press knows that; everyone knows that. It's time to deliver the goods.

The bottom line, though, is that Fred Thompson's campaign was being laughed at two weeks ago. The laughing, however, has changed to mere snickering as the collective powers that be await to see if the candidate and the campaign can outline a clear rationale for his candidacy, whether there is a plausible conservative message, the extent to which he can credibly embrace "change" in Washington as a former DC lobbyist and U.S. Senator, and, finally, whether the landmines can be side-stepped and mistakes avoided.

Let the fun begin.

Gordon Hensley -- September 5, 2007; 1806 EDT

Giuliani Press Operation Raises Its Game

Besides the fact Rudy Giuliani’s presidential campaign has developed a plausible message centered upon strength and leadership, it has shown itself to be increasingly nimble and agile on the political front -- seeking advantage and opportunity by living off the land using campaign savvy and the wire and glue of spin needed in this game of perceptions. And one of the summer’s success stories, without a doubt, is Giuliani’s press and day-to-day message operation.

Over the past two to three months, the campaign press and message shop has settled into a methodical news making process of taking repeated shots at easy, inviting targets like Hillary Clinton, Michael Moore, Fidel Castro -- and other reliable bogeymen – then blasting on a policy basis such evils as “socialist” health care solutions, and even lambasting the Democrats as a party of “losers”.

The Rudy press shop understands that attacks drive news coverage while having the corollary benefit of firing up GOP primary voters looking for a fighter. The attacks on Democrats also have the effect of a good left jab – keeping the press busy covering your attacks while keeping them off of you with other, more pesky queries.

Meanwhile, as Giuliani has been effectively serving as the GOP’s de facto anti-Democrat cheerleader on the national level, he’s been travelling market to market raising a respectable war chest while concurrently generating good, basic broadcast news coverage. A case in point was Rudy’s last fundraising swing into northern Virginia several weeks back. The local network affiliates dutifully showed up, took their position on the riser, did minimal, easy reporting and produced stories for the late news any press office would be happy to see: A few sound bites of Rudy talking about the importance of leadership in fighting terror, a few attacks on “soft on terror” Democrats, some b-roll of Giuliani touring the havoc in NYC following the collapse of the World Trade Center, then the reporter announcing Giuliani raked in big bucks from that night’s local fundraiser and a quick wrap-up sound bite with a local political big shot saying Rudy’s focus on terror is smart.

If you replicate this format dozens of times in dozens of local markets, as Giuliani has, you rack up plenty of good local coverage. This has the effect of buoying the overall campaign apparatus, and inspiring confidence in the campaign team among fundraisers, the growing number of political backers on Capitol Hill, and other key audiences. And despite the formulaic nature of this local broadcast coverage, it’s harder than it looks to keep this going consistently for the length of time Giuliani has. Moreover, it takes message discipline, and the candidate and his press people are executing, at least for now.

When the paid media arrows start flying in the run-up to the early contests, the news making is far more challenging. Regardless, most campaigns never even establish the basics, and Giuliani’s campaign has done so.

Rudy’s campaign was also recently hassled by well-read Politico blogger Jonathan Martin for what he said was the Giuliani press shop’s “recycling” of Iowa endorsements that attempt “to create the impression of an Iowa operation that is gathering strength” when in fact they were basically just “breaking down old endorsements into regional subsets.”

Well, good for them – that’s exactly what they’re supposed to do. This is another example, albeit a small one, of Giuliani’s campaign living off the land, working with and maximizing the hand they’ve been dealt, and, as Martin observed, “doing it with a little smoke and mirrors.”

Finally, while Judith Giuliani got off to a very rough start with the media, she and her advisors have grown increasingly sophisticated in their press dealings. A recent New York Times story showcased her admitting, in regard to the presidential campaign spotlight, she is "new at this" and learning the ropes. A little humility goes a long way, in addition to the fact it's Jeri Thompson's turn for cyclical press scrutiny. But what about that catty and punishing Vanity Fair article? Rudy's press shop did a good job trashing the piece before and after it hit the streets -- and Judi Giuliani is doing all one can and should do: just keep moving and keep smiling. She's much better at this game after six months in the dunk tank.

While the Romney campaign maintains the best, most agile and skilled press operation on the GOP side, the Giuliani campaign has made up substantial ground in this key area over the summer, to the point where Romney and Giuliani’s superiority on the communications and press operation front -- vis a vis the GOP competition -- is painfully obvious.

McCain's Grim Reality Bolstered by Rock Bottom Expectations and the Unexpected

There's obviously not much good news for the presidential campaign of Arizona Senator John McCain. The odds are that he's cooked, especially with the imminent entry of Fred Thompson, who has helped starve the McCain campaign of needed funds.

But as grim as things are at the moment, there's at least one corollary benefit, however ephemeral it might be: McCain's expectations are at a rock bottom low.

Any talk of pulling out of the race is completely premature, especially with such a wide open situation still at hand -- and especially with other rookie presidential candidates in the race such as Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson. There is danger ahead.

The odds are that one or perhaps even two of these three putative front-runners will somehow falter in the GOP primary end game crucible -- either to a gaffe, a meltdown under the media klieg lights, a revelation or two of some sort, or some major, bizarre error that points a one-time top tier candidate towards the exits.

McCain cannot count on this happening, but it's possible.

But even then, with an opening, he'd have to take advantage of it.

Courtesy of the Brody File, here's an article from the Associated Press in 1979:

"Ronald Reagan, regarded as a leading candidate for the 1980 Republican presidential nomination, is trailing other GOP candidates in financial contributions this year, according to federal reports. The Federal Election Commission said Wednesday that Reagan's campaign committee has reported $1.4 million in contributions so far this year. That compares with these other GOP presidential contenders and the funds they have reported raising: Rep. Philip M. Crane of Illinois, $2.5 million. Former Texas Gov. John Connally, $2.2 million. Former CIA Director George Bush, $1.5 million.. And although Reagan wasn't the leading fund-raiser, he was the biggest spender, using nearly $1.3 million of the $1.4 million he raised."

And here's a Washington Post story from June, 1980, after Reagan made a comeback and secured the nomination:

"It is true that Reagan entered the campaign with enormous assets. But Reagan had to overcome doubts about his age and ability, an ill-advised Iowa strategy, a major staff shake-up in the middle of the campaign and serious money problems."

Clearly, McCain is no Reagan because of his problems with the GOP base, and the dynamics of 2008 are different than 1980, but it is instructive to look back at the press coverage.

McCain, a boxing fan, isn't just taking big head shots yet surviving by bobbing and weaving on the ropes -- he's on the mat. But, as always, something completely unpredictable will occur in the months ahead. Perhaps it will be on the Democratic side, but we'll see.

Obama Campaign Errors Taking Toll on Credibility

Senator Barack Obama's presidential effort is hauling in a boatload of cash, but his credibility is sinking fast as the rookie politician continues to blame staffers for various transgressions related to competency and judgment.

For example, Obama called the 'Hillary Clinton (D-Punjab)' memo "a screw-up on the part of our research staff" (Des Moines Register).

He "blamed his campaign staff for crafting" the memo and "distanced himself from" their actions (Washington Times).

The Chicago Sun-Times reports, "This is the third time Obama has blamed staff for mistakes."

Obama should either fire staffers for "screw ups" or stand by them. There's no middle ground, and Obama has now exhibited a pattern of taking the worst possible stance when inevitable errors occur: failing to be accountable.

Cash may be king in campaigns, but so is credibility. Obama has a credibility problem that is growing by the day.

Despite Message Control From HillaryHub.com, MSM Remains Key to Making, Breaking News

The interesting Ben Smith article in Politico this morning reporting on Hillary Clinton's new auxilliary website, HillaryHub.com, contains plenty of valid points and analysis in regard to how the internet is impacting the dissemination of news from campaigns.

Smith reports, "Not long ago, a campaign had a couple of options for getting out word of a big endorsement: a press release to political reporters, or maybe a calculated leak to a big local paper. But Wednesday morning, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's campaign broke the news of Hollywood icon Steven Spielberg's endorsement on a new website the campaign runs, HillaryHub.com. The campaign later e-mailed reporters suggesting they check the site.

"HillaryHub isn't a typical campaign site," Smith continues. "With a simple, three-column look, occasionally edgy headlines and links to a blend of videos, reports from newspapers and blogs and campaign memos, it's a news aggregator on the model of the Drudge Report. The difference, of course, is that the stories are chosen to depict Clinton favorably and to tweak her critics."

But despite the validity of the technology trend, and the key point made that breaking campaign news on a candidate's website ensures control of content, there's some reported hokum as well from GOP internet/web consultant Patrick Ruffini, who broadly proclaims, "The days of leaking strategically to The New York Times to get a story out are over. When everyone from a reporter to a voter has access to a website like (HillaryHub) -- reporters are going to report it anyway, if it's newsworthy -- what they're doing, and it's smart, is to get it out on their own terms."

True, but the days of "leaking strategically to the NYT to get a story out are over"?... Not by a long shot.

One sees more and more of these overzealous observations every day from the campaign web/internet consultants going just a bit overboard in their rush to throw the MSM over the side.

New Books on Hillary Clinton Indeed a "Big Yawn"

Watching Carl Bernstein discuss with CNN's Wolf Blitzer his new book about Hillary Clinton, "A Woman in Charge," the discussion this morning was solely a rehash of past foibles, mistakes and indulgences on the part of the Clintons.

When one hears the name "Betsy Wright" bandied about -- and all of her twenty plus
years of Clinton machinations rehashed, as was the case with Blitzer, it's time to zone out of that discussion. It's basically background noise.

It also doesn't really appear the new book by Jeff Gerth and Don Van Natta has broken much new ground either, and their gig on Meet the Press today was dullsville. Gerth is a helluva reporter, but this book seems ro be just a means of capitalizing financially on Hillary's run for President. Why not?

The Clinton campaign has described these books as "A big yawn"... That's pretty much the case.

On a 1-10 damage scale, it's barely a one.

Giuliani Makes Clever Move on Ames Straw Poll; Thompson to Follow?

Per the Des Moines Register, Rudy Giuliani will skip the Ames straw poll in August, but still compete in the Iowa caucus. While blowing off the circus-like Ames event, Giuliani manager Mike DuHaime said 'We are 100 percent committed to winning the Iowa caucuses. We're going to take the resources that would have been spent in the straw poll and we're going to dedicate all of them toward organizing for the January caucuses."

Not bad: setting rock bottom expectations in IA caucus from bowing out of the straw poll while being able to stay underground and possibly exceed the expectations bar. Easily the best of any possible position Giuliani and his people could have chosen.

Perhaps the biggest takeaway from the Register article, as pointed out by NBC First Read: "Giuliani's decision could dampen interest in the event as a true early test of strength in the Republican field."

This opens a door for Fred Thompson to follow and also opt out of the straw poll -- thus helping both to survive a weak showing on caucus night, and providing the opportunity to exceed the low bar. On the flip side, after so much discussion of the "lazy" Fred, there will be great pressure on him to show some fire and compete in the straw poll. Not competing drives the lazy narrative. key decision for Thompson ahead.

Regardless, this has been a good two days for Giuliani.

For CNN Politics Commentary, More Mike Murphy, Less Amy Holmes

Just a sidenote from the CNN debate this evening and the subsequent commentary: Mike Murphy should get more airtime and Amy Holmes far less. Murphy knows the biz as well as anyone and has been a player at the presidential and major statewide level for years. He's inciteful, honest, objective and funny -- the GOP equivalent of Paul Begala, easily the best analyst on the Dem side.

A Mike Murphy-Paul Begala duo is the best analytical team on television, and CNN should pair these two as often as possible.

Amy Holmes? She's actually quite articulate, but being former Tennessee Senator Bill Frist's "speechwriter" for a short period of time is no real qualification to talk politics with real pros like Murphy and Begala. She seems like a nice person, but give her the hook.

Romney, Rudy Stand Out at NH CNN Debate

Despite the fact AZ Senator John McCain did not do bad at the CNN debate in Manchester, NH this evening -- in fact, he did OK -- it was simply that Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani did better, and for different reasons.

Romney, right at the outset, handled the McCain immigration charge of having no plan excellently. Moreover, he was solid the entire evening and looked great doing so. His answer on abortion flip fliopping and Mormonism were also superb. Romney gets an A.

The fact Rudy Giuliani was even close to Romney's performance tonite shows just how good the Mayor did in terms of presentation skills, was good at the give and take, was funny and, here's a big one: he smiled a lot. Consequently, he appeared confident and provided the best answer to abortion thus far, in this viewer's opinion. Good answer on Scotter Libby also. Rudy earns a solid B+.

McCain, while earnest and generally effective, still didn't come close to dealing with all the downsides associated with supporting the immigration package. But who could? he's out there on a limb. McCain has to take the issue head-on and should get credit for doing so. McCain gets a solid B.

Like the CNN Dem debate, in which Hillary, Edwards and Obama showed why they're in the the top tier, this debate showed why Romney, Rudy and McCain are the top tier. They're just qualitatively head and shoulders above the also rans.

From the second tier, Brownback did well tonite -- not great, but certainly his best performance so far.

One observation that must be noted: the audience applause when Tancredo dissed Bush.

Obama Overcomes Lightweight Label at NH CNN Debate

The instant react: Despite the fact Hillary Clinton and John Edwards both advanced their own causes at CNN's debate tonite at St. Anselm's College in Manchester, NH, Barack Obama probably came out the best.

Obama "won" in this viewer's opinion because he projected so much more gravitas than in the last major debate, in which Hillary Clinton's personna, professionalism and bigger time experience dwarfed the Illinois Senator.

Overall, this was just one more example of Hillary, Edwards and Obama demonstrating why they're the top tier. All three walk away with a good performance, but Obama showed more than just flash tonite. It wasn't just his confident overall presentation, he looked more at ease doing so; as the camera is already good to him, a solid, confident appearance takes him even farther in this important context of stagecraft and optics.

Fred Thompson's Biggest Initial Hurdle: Ronald Reagan

Beyond the substantial structural and organizational challenges awaiting likely presidential candidate Fred Thompson, perhaps one of his biggest obstacles is Ronald Reagan -- and the fact there is no possible way he will meet the media and activist expectations bar set for him as, quote, "the next Ronald Reagan."

As some have intimated in recent weeks, especially some of Thompson's Tennessee friends, Fred isn't as conservative as some supporters-in-waiting might expect, or hope.

As the AP's Liz Sidoti points out today, "Conservatives who make up a big part of the GOP base have found fault with Giuliani, McCain and Romney for varying reasons and for months now have been searching for a candidate to embrace. Thompson's backers bill him as the perfect person — the one truly conservative candidate in the mold of Ronald Reagan who can beat the Democratic nominee in November 2008.

Thus, right off the bat, an enormous challenge Thompson must overcome from the standpoint of reporting and the subsequent developing press narrative is dealing with the Reagan comparison. Easier said than done -- especially when the opposition has already started to move info around the horn -- off the record thus far -- implying Thompson is less than a true conservative.

The other immediate challenge is the rise of Mitt Romney in Iowa and New Hampshire, fueled in large part by being up on the air -- alone and in a vacuum on the GOP side -- with good looking issue-driven advertising.

The old conventional wisdom is that Romney would be toast upon Thompson's entry. That simply cannot be said now, and it appears, correctly, that Thompson's backers understand the need to get into the race more quickly.

One very interesting aspect of Thompson's effort thus far is the emphasis on the internet, and how he has cleverly appealed to the GOP web roots with q and a sessions with conservative-oriented sites like Pajamas Media -- and the appealing smack down of Michael Moore after the two sparred over the producer's movie "Sicko," which depicts Sept. 11 survivors seeking medical care in Cuba.

In the online video, Thompson puffed on a cigar as he sat in a leather desk chair and reminded Moore that the Cuban government once put a documentary filmmaker in a mental institution.

Some nice moves so far by Fred, but the GOP primary cakewalk many of his supporters thought would occur is just not in the cards, and the operatives employed by Rudy, McCain and Romney are already working behind the scenes to derail him, and so is the press; banana peels everywhere you look.

SC GOP Debate: Giuliani, Romney Help Themselves; No Big Losers

Instant post debate react: Besides the fact the SC Fox News GOP presidential primary debate was vastly more interesting and better than MSNBC's recent debate, one key headline of the debate has to be that Rudy Giuliani recovered somewhat from his first debate -- with his forceful answers on terrorism and leaving it vague as to whether he supports rougher interrogation techniques against terrorists, like water-boarding. The debate watchers liked that big time.

Mitt Romney, while laying a great hit on McCain for backing "McCain-Kennedy" and "McCain-Feingold", took a tough counter from McCain on not changing his positions based on running for different offices in "odd and even years". Regardless, Romney's answers were smooth, he looked good, and his general rebuttal style against flip-flop charges were smooth and generally believable. Romney is starting to break through.

Except for Gov. Huckabee, with his great John Edwards line, all the others were non factors.

Jim Gilmore, a winner from the last debate, erred in failing to be more forceful in naming names when he made various allegations -- until forced to by Chris Wallace.

Biggest winner: Giuliani.

Secondary winners: Romney and McCain, possibly Huckabee... but it will be interesting to see how the spin unfolds in regard to McCain taking a "weak" position, contrary to Rudy, on manhandling terrorists.

Biggest Loser: None, really, but Gilmore plainly had a gameplan yet didn't execute properly.

Giuliani Partners' Ongoing Secrecy a Ripe Media Target

The Washington Post's front pager today by John Solomon and Matthew Mosk, "In Private Sector, Giuliani Parlayed Fame Into Wealth," Giuliani Partners remains an easy target for both investigative enterprise reporting and for opponents.

Here's the bottom line: until there is transparency and candor in regard to Giuliani Partners' client list and other key bottom line facts about the firm's practices and compensation records, the former NYC mayor will continue to get lambasted.

the key grafs from the Washington Post:

Clients of Giuliani Partners are required to sign confidentiality agreements, so they do not comment about the work they receive or how much they are paying for it. Though now running for president, Giuliani refuses to identify his clients, disclose his compensation or reveal any details about Giuliani Partners. He also declined to be interviewed about the firm.

Because of this secrecy -- a request to visit his wood-paneled offices overlooking Times Square was turned down -- a complete picture of the firm and its business is difficult to obtain. This report is based on a review of corporate, government and court records, along with scores of interviews with clients and government officials who have interacted with Giuliani Partners.

If the campaign continues a stay the course policy of secrecy, the actual "facts" about the firm -- while presumably mostly sterile to begin with -- will be filled in by the inevitable reporting with oppo dump info and flatly wrong info, which is far worse than putting it out on your terms, and managing the story on your terms (or at least more on your terms).

One cannot run for President today without allowing public scrutiny of your current and past employment, and income sources.

Romney Cleverly Draws Sharpton Into High Profile Pissing Match

The campaign of GOP presdiential candidate Mitt Romney has cleverly and skillfully drawn the Rev. Al Sharpton into a high profile "religious slur" pissing match that helps the GOP candidate significantly every news cycle the story remains alive -- especially as Sharpton tries to ease himself out, signaling the white flag of defeat.

Case in point: Sharpton's appearance on Hardball tonite. The usual gladatorial mien of the Imus-slayer was nowhere to be found in his interview, and he already knows Romney has gotten the better of him.

Al Sharpton attacking you is made to order for Romney. Nice to watch Sharpton get nailed on this one. Good staff work, great candidate execution; a mini-sister soulja.

Giuliani Makes Unusual IA/NH Staffing Decisions

From Hotline On Call posted today:

May 09, 2007
Rudy's New State Directors Aren't Vets Of Their States

"Talented and experienced as they are, we noticed that Joe Jarabek, who's been appointed Giuliani's Iowa state director, and Jennifer Hallowell, who's been appointed Giuliani's New Hampshire state director, don't seem to have much Iowa and New Hampshire experience.

"Jarabek joins Tony Delgado, a former RNC political aide who is Iowa political director, and Bruceanne Phillips, a top aide on Rep. Jim Nussle's '06 gubernatorial campaign. Ex-Rep. Nussle is Giuliani's Iowa chair. Hallowell joins a more seasoned team in New Hampshire, led currently by ex-NH GOP chair Wayne Semprini.
Their selections are yet another sign that Giuliani plans to run an untraditional campaign in both states.

"Jarabek has run campaigns in West Virginia and Ohio, and Hallowell is the former exec. dir of the Indiana Republican Party. Republicans swept statewide officers in IN in '06... but lost three seats in Congress."

Frankly, there's nothing wrong with hiring "outsiders" to run campaigns -- even presidential caucus/primary campaigns of this import. In fact, it can often result in fresh, creative thinking that breaks the stale "that's the way we've always done it here" mentality so pervasive in campaigns of every level.

But all things being equal, these are unusual hires, and it will be interesting to watch as the IA and NH campaigns unfold. Even if you're not for Rudy, you have to be pulling just a little for the outsiders to come in and do well. If they win, sky's the limit on professional upward mobility.

In 1980, New Yorker Rich Bond went to Iowa for George H.W. Bush -- and the rest is history.

McCain, Gilmore Emerge as Debate Winners

The morning after, assesments of the debate are all over the map, but we must concur with David Yepsen's straight-on view:

"John McCain was his old self in Thursday night’s Republican presidential debate: Feisty, pointed and a straight-talker who wasn’t afraid to tell Republican activists things they didn’t want to hear. It made him the big winner of the night."

McCain also looked vigorous, energetic and confident -- which had been lacking on the campaign trail. He even smiled throughout much of the debate, a small thing but a big thing.

It's surprising to see how many thought Mitt Romney did well. Frankly, he appeared plastic and Ken Doll-like, and had a lightweight aura about him.

Rudy Giuliani leaves worse off than when he arrived -- mostly because he was forced to spend so much time answering abortion questions and twisting around in the wind on this contentious defensive issue for him. And Judi Nathan is downright odd -- preening about, and it seems as though she's auditioning for First Lady.

Jim Gilmore was the big second tier winner -- his message of being a consistent conservative got through the clutter of a very difficult format, and he had an earnest, pleasant, professional demeanor. Gilmore's stint at the RNC provides him with a level of comfort performing in these cattle shows, and he understands message delivery.

Big loser? tough to say. Probably none of them.

Big winners? McCain and Gilmore.

Instant React: McCain, Gilmore Come Out on Top

In a challenging format, McCain won the show -- he was well lit, looked vigorous, demonstrated his debate experience; Gilmore the second tier winner. Rudy too much time on abortion... more later.

McCain Rebounding as Rudy Begins to Sink

Despite the "John McCain is History" sentiment prevalent among so many of the uninformed and naive in DC and NYC, the Arizona Senator is beginning to climb out of his cyclical rut -- despite a spate of gaffes -- while Rudy Giuliani is beginning the slow, inevitable slide back to reality.

While Rudy has made some smart GOP primary plays lately -- like charging another 9/11 would be more likely if a Dem was in the White House -- his slippage was always in the cards, and his staying power is now definitely in question.

And forget the national polls, where Rudy is up but slipping and where McCain is languishing.

Things aren't great for McCain in IA, NH and SC, but there's good reason for optimism. Some reporting from the Boston Herald this morning lays it out:

On the heels of his formal campaign announcement in Portsmouth, N.H., last week, the poll by American Research Group shows McCain leading the Granite State with 29 percent support - a six-point hike over his ranking in March. Former Bay State Gov. Mitt Romney is running a strong second in New Hampshire at 24 percent, while former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has dropped 10 points to 17 since February, the poll shows.

The news for McCain is also good in Iowa and South Carolina, which are also among the first states to vote in the 2008 GOP primary. In Iowa, McCain dropped slightly from 29 to 26 percent, but is up from the 23 percent he received in February. Giuliani is at 19 in Iowa, a 10-point decline since February, while Romney is at 14 percent, up from just 8 two months ago.

In South Carolina, the poll shows McCain at 36 percent, Giuliani at 23, actor Fred Thompson at 10 and Romney at 6.

While Romney remains an attractive wild card, there's a nascent storyline developing about the McCain resurgence and the Rudy slippage.

At the GOP Reagan Library debate on 5/3, look for Rudy to be attacked in a collegial yet sharp manner on abortion, gays and guns. This will drive his further slippage and serve as a strong, legit newspeg to write stories as to why Rudy's headed south in the polls, among other reasons.

McCain One Term Pledge? A Bad Idea

The National Review recently proffered the notion that Arizona Senator John McCain should pledge to serve one term as a remedy for “the age issue,” and noted “it would separate him from the GOP pack and fit the ‘narrative arc’ of his career, acting above self-interest.”

It would, they suggested, “defuse the age issue” – and noted McCain has been traveling with MN Governor Tim Pawlenty quite a bit. One term for McCain then pass the torch to DC outsider Pawlenty?

Nothing against Pawlenty, a GOP rising star, but that’s a bad idea, and would simply draw more attention – permanent attention – to the Senator’s age. Anyone who has watched McCain on the campaign trail, or spent any amount of time around him, will see he’ll run 25 year olds into the ground with his stamina.

McCain, already characterized as toast by rivals, is going to get a second look down the line, and move up from his current cyclical downturn. The McCain one term idea is too cute by half. Bad idea.

On another note, the ineptitude of Alberto Gonzalez and his people in communicating the rationale for the dismissal of U.S. attorneys leaves the impression that Karl Rove deputy, Tim Griffin, is a political hack completely unqualified to serve as district attorney for the eastern district of Arkansas.

The facts just do not corroborate this developing Beltway consensus.

As Hotline On Call has reported, here are Griffin’s various qualifications:

1. He's a '94 grad of Tulane Law School and spent two years studying at Oxford in England.

2. He spent a year at DoJ where he prosecuted, among other things, federal firearms cases and served as a point person on international trafficking investigations. He was also appointed by Homeland Sec. Chertoff to prosecute cases in the eastern district of AR.

3. He was the senior investigative counsel for Dan Burton at the House Gov't Reform Cmte. Complain about Burton's politics, but since when is Congressional staff service a disqualifier?

4. He helped independent counsel David Barrett investigate Henry Cisneros.

5. He prosecuted cases as an Army JAG officer.

6. He's a decorated Army Reserve major.

7. He served in Iraq.

The guy is totally qualified. Period.

Bob Weir, RatDog, Pull Off Historic Three Night Run at NYC's Beacon Theater

When I tell my musically-literate friends that Grateful Dead guitarist/vocalist Bob Weir’s band, RatDog, is the hottest band on the planet, I routinely get glazed-over looks of skepticism, incredulity and outright derision. They just don’t know any better -- and they would see things differently if they had been fortunate enough to catch the band’s three night run at New York City’s venerable Beacon Theater last week.
In short, Ratdog’s marketing guys and fans alike have every legitimate right to characterize this run as “historic” – and the Thursday and Saturday night shows, in this listener’s opinion, even surpassed the blowout energy level of the prior “threshold” Beacon show: 10/25/03. That, in and of itself, is a major feat. And luckily, unlike past Beacon gigs, these three shows are available from www.ratdoglive.com in soundboard/matrix. There are also plenty of high quality auds already proliferating on the internet.

With Bobby Weir’s sixtieth birthday just around the corner, it’s impossible not to have been inspired and uplifted by his utterly contagious energy and vigor; he was a happy man, with a happy band, intent upon blowing the roof off the Beacon, and that was accomplished the first night with monster renditions of the Grateful Dead classics, Estimated Prophet and Sugar Magnolia. Interesting song placements – Black Muddy River out of “stuff” and Uncle John’s Band as the encore – added to the show’s irresistible appeal.

On both Estimated and Sugar Magnolia, Weir and guitarist Mark Karan came right down
to the front of the stage to shred both tunes, and the crowd was treated to several intense, perfectly- timed Bobby lunges that sent the crowd into a collective frenzy. Weir has generally avoided charging the crowd in this manner, for all practical purposes, since the 80’s, and watching him come down front from our 8th row seats – especially on these two tunes -- was a time warp rush. It was great.

But as hot as the band was for the 3/8 and 3/10 shows, one of the big headlines of the entire three day run is the still under-appreciated Mark Karan, who has stepped up in a huge manner over the past several years. With all of the other mesmerizing aural chaos being generated around them by Kenny Brooks on horns, Jay Lane on drums, Robin Sylvester on bass and Jeff Chimenti on keys, the ability of Weir and Karan to lock so singly into soaring sonic jams is spectacular.

In this Beacon run, and as he does now routinely, Karan demonstrated he can summon the power of an incendiary Jerry Garcia guitar solo, but without mimicking Garcia’s signature style and sound. Karan’s own sound is huge, and the ever-growing size and sophistication of his rig is bringing out the best in him and his band mates. Several years back, Weir, in an interview, likened Mark’s playing to an unfolding flower. He’s now in full bloom.

Other Beacon run highlights:

 Despite the fact Kenny Brooks’s talented trombone-playing buddy, Josh Roseman, didn’t show up, Chuck MacKinnon’s improv trumpet playing during the pre-Other One jam on 3/8 was a mind-blower. He’s damn good, and unfortunately didn’t have as much room or time to stretch out during the 3/10 show. The only other trumpet player I’ve seen play like that with RatDog is New Orleans jazz superstar, Irvin Mayfield.

 A different version of Stagger Lee was played each night: a generally botched acoustic version on 3/8; a rockin’ traditional electric arrangement on 3/9; and a Grateful Dead-style electric version on 3/10. The fact the band has the self-confidence and chops to throw these three versions out there before being perfected in successive sound checks speaks volumes about the creativity we’re seeing on this ’07 spring tour and the just-completed west coast run.

 The return of Gloria, Bobby’s Vegas “lounge act” version of My Funny Valentine, killer versions of Looks Like Rain and Black Throated Wind, a Quinn the Eskimo breakout, a super-slithery Althea into da bomb version of Scarlet Begonias, Jerry Jemmott on Milestones>Lovelight, and Tom Pope’s percussive explorations with Jay Lane all three nights, rounds out the highlights. Just too many to list.

One other thing that’s apparent over the past year is how well RatDog’s three new tunes – Jus’ Like Mama Said, Money for Gasoline and Tuesday Blues – have, with such facility, worked their way into the set lists. The jam in Money for Gasoline is different and interesting, and the band clearly enjoys working this tune over as it evolves. The 3/8 version was creative and rippling with energy.

In 1976, some young teen-age friends and I went to see Kingfish at the Beacon, and one year later, saw my first Grateful Dead concert at the Boston Garden. I was hooked. And now, some 30-odd years later, this special ensemble rolls up and down the east coast, west coast and through the American heartland, year in and year out. The fact this still occurs, and does so at this lofty level of performance, is an amazing testament to Bob Weir’s talent, work ethic and spirit; that he’s been able to draw such talented and passionate musicians into his post-Grateful Dead musical universe is special in and of itself. Enjoy the ride while it’s still here.

Photos courtesy of Butch Worrell via ratdog.org

Rudy, THE National Story

This from ABC's The Note this morning:

(For the record, DCSpectator falls under "Group One" below -- just so it's understood in the context of other posts...)

The Gang of 500's previous unanimous view that Rudy Giuliani cannot win the Republican presidential nomination has come to a stunning end, and the Gang is now cleaved into three groups of indeterminate sizes.

The first group still believes that Giuliani can't be nominated — despite the overwhelming lead he enjoys in all current national horserace polling. Members of Group 1 believe that there are 96 reasons that the former New York City mayor absolutely can't sustain his lofty position over the next eleven months, and his oft-discussed liberal positions on social issues aren't even the twelfth-most significant factor.

Group 2 contains Gang members who believe that Giuliani's chances are infinitesimally tiny and wee, but they are extant, if all the stars align, and if all the other candidates collapse and if 2008 is truly a different kind of election than the nation has seen in years and years.

Adherents of Group 3 — surely still the smallest of the trio — believe that the Giuliani campaign's mantra about leadership and the post-9/11 environment and the fact that one can now walk without fear from a Broadway show to a late-night dinner at Orso, will lead him to the nomination and the White House.

Rudy Places Strong 2nd in SC Straw Poll

Rudy Giuliani's continued good fortune was in evidence last night, as the AP reports Rudy is leading in a somewhat significant first test of strength: the Spartanburg County straw poll. In the final tally, he lost to Sen. John McCain by just two votes: 164-162.

Anonymous mailings critical of Mitt Romney on the eve of the Spartanburg poll have raised the specter of a long, nasty battle between now and the SC primary, reports the Columbia State. One of the pieces was a 6-page "attack on Romney's record on abortion, gun control, taxes and 'conservative values'" sent via mail 2/26 to several Spartanburg GOPers and postmarked Columbia.

A second piece, an e-mail from "upstaterepublican@gmail.com" took a shot "at Romney's faith." The e-mail is headlined: "Mitt Romney has a family secret he doesn't want you to know" and includes a copy of a recent AP story on "how Romney's ancestors practices polygamy".

Looks like the 2000 hatchet job on McCain all over again -- this time on Romney. Rudy will be the next target of this subterranean sleaze.

After Great Month, Giuliani Finally Takes a Direct Hit

Lets’s first start out by saying the Rudy guys have converted plenty of skeptics in regard to his seriousness, the competency and national ring savvy of his staff, and his overall credibility.

His emerging message, that “more freedom” must be the ultimate guide to help solve a plethora of domestic policy ills, is right out of an old Arthur Finkelstein playbook. It’s going to be effective if he can develop it.

But just as the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) convenes in DC today -- a great opportunity for Rudy to develop this message – the Politico’s Ben Smith drops this little bomblet of perfectly bundled research that nails America’s Mayor on several fronts, just as he’s started to seriously pitch his conservative bonafides out on the hustings.

The odds are that the McCain guys provided Politico this salient oppo hit – and more power to them; McCain’s been taking hits for weeks, primarily because he’s getting pulled down into the Iraq quagmire morass.

McCain, the “former” frontrunner has also seen some really bad press in the past week questioning the very viability of his candidacy, and that he’s lost his 2000 mojo for good.

Just as Rudy’s stock price is overvalued now, McCain’s stock price is slightly undervalued, and he is now in a cyclical rut. Mitt Romney’s stock value has also plummeted as of late, and he, too, is slightly undervalued at the moment.

But now that Rudy is the “frontrunner” he’s now the target – and McCain, especially, will need to take back some of the market share that has “gravitated” – an accurate characterization – to Giuliani.

No question: Rudy’s kicked some major ass of late, and has been quite impressive – but there are now a number of arms trying to pull him down into the meat grinder. Now we’ll finally see some real campaigning and genuine hostilities breaking out.

Ten Truths About Rudy Giuliani

Marc Ambinder of Hotline On Call lays out this "Ten Truths About Rudy Giuliani" very, very well:

1. He enters the race more admired; and, not only more admired, more-liked than any presidential candidate since Eisenhower. His national poll ratings do not simply reflect name recognition. They reflect the intrinsic bond that Giuliani formed with the country in the days after 9/11.

2. His resume is thicker than some of his fellow Republican candidates and not as expansive as some of the others. But being the mayor of New York City, presiding over and taming a mammoth bureaucracy, arguably fortified him with more executive experience than the governors of two dozen states. (How many states have fewer than 7 million people?) Massachusetts and Arkansas, for two.

3. More than any other Republican candidate, he would expand the 2008 electoral map. New Jersey would certainly be, for the first time, really, competitive. New Hampshire wouldn't be a sure thing for Democrats. Either would Pennsylvania or Michigan. Independents might re-defect from the Democratic Party.

4. He's pro-choice and pro-gay rights. So is a good chunk of the GOP's donor base, who fret mainly about taxes and government regulation.

5. "I'm pro choice." "I favor domestic partnerships." You be may pro-life, and you might not favor expanded civil rights for gay couples, but you will have no doubt, when introduced to Rudy Giuliani, where he stands on those issues. On the other hand, you may be confused by someone who says he prefers "strict constructionist" judges and who also endorses Roe v. Wade and Lawrence V. Texas.

6. About 30 percent of the Republican primary base is pro-choice and open to supporting some gay rights initiatives. The rest of the base is pro-life, but only about half -- about 30 percent in total -- are pro-life voters. Assuming he gets the majority of GOP moderates, a little less than half of the ideological conservatives, and only 20 percent of the hard-corps moral conservatives, he could do well in the Iowa caucuses.

7. The Ames Straw poll will be, obviously, a barometer of the Giuliani team's organizational strength in Iowa. It will also test Giuliani's baseline credibility. The latter is important; the former is more important.

8. Fox News seems to be in love with "America's Mayor," as they call him. That's an unalloyed good. Liberals will recall the "Pre 9/11 Rudy" and charges of racial insensitivity and his mercurial, imperious personality. The more liberals attack Giuliani, the more comfortable conservatives will feel about him.

9. Rudy Giuliani will never get the endorsement of Tony Perkins, or James Dobson, or Richard Land, or Rod Parsley. Therefore, he won't have to pander to them, and he can focus his time and energy on finding Republicans who can vote for him.

10. "Can Rudy win the nomination?" is a good question. "What does Rudy need to do to win the general election?" is a better question.

As Pataki Takes an '08 Breather, Rudy Starts to Turn DC Spin

While the Manchester Union Leader is reporting this afternoon on its blog that George Pataki's entry into the 2008 presidential contest is hardly imminent and perhaps a no-go, Rudy Giuliani is making some political and personnel moves as of late that are getting skeptics to take a second look.

Here's the Union Leader:

Pataki isn't ready to join the race
By JOHN DISTASO
Senior Political Reporter

MANCHESTER – He didn’t directly take himself out of presidential contention, but former New York Gov. George Pataki told key Granite State Republicans last night he won’t object if they want to closely examine and endorse other candidates.
At a private dinner in a secluded alcove at Fratello’s Italian Ristorante in Manchester on Tuesday night, Pataki told about a dozen activists and uncommited GOP leaders that “he’s going to let the dust settle and see where we are in a few months,” House Republican Leader Michael Whalley told UnionLeader.com today.

More on Rudy shortly...

More Nagging Questions About Viability of Giuliani's Presidential Bid

The new DC political blog, The Politico, is up today with an interesting article by former NY Daily News reporter Ben Smith and Jonathan Martin raising still more questions about Rudy Giuliani's nascent presidential campaign effort.

I still say he's out by the end of first quarter -- despite the news that Rudy is selling the investment banking side of his business, a smart move.

GOP consultant Chris LaCivita gets right to the point:

"I doubt his ability to actually go through with it to the end," said Republican strategist Chris LaCivita, who is not working for any of the presidential hopefuls. "Here we are, it's the 17th of January, we've got straw polls around the corner, and they don't have a media consultant or a pollster yet? That's a tell-tale sign."

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0107/2433.html

"Outsider" Romney Making a Good Run Lining-Up GOP House Members

An interesting development between the two true GOP frontrunners John McCain and Mitt Romney is how DC outsider Romney is making a good run at lining up U.S. House members in his camp.

McCain's got a slew of House endorsements to make once he takes the plunge as an official candidate, but there's little question Romney is making a play at being on the offensive inside the beltway, and its being noticed. Jim McCrery, a major 'get', is the latest overt Romney-backer.

Giuliani Effort Takes on Potemkin Village Appearance

As GOP presidential candidates John McCain and Mitt Romney continue to crisply line up staff, issue policy pronouncements that have the appearance of substance, and act like the top tier primary candidates they are, Rudy Giuliani’s effort is beginning to take on the appearance of a Potemkin village.

The Rudy forces argue that, indeed, they’re also lining up quality staff – and they are, in addition to “leading” in most national polls – but his exploratory effort is now reacting to developments, not shaping them. Whereas the McCain and Romney operations are competent and proactive, the Giuliani team is increasingly slow on the draw, and beginning to get sucked down into the nitty-gritty sinkhole of scrutiny that has long been predicted.

Things have changed now that it’s closer to prime time, and the drift generally started with the purloined campaign document drama, which made Rudy’s team appear foolish, and has moved on to the interesting notion of trademarking his own name.

As New York Daily News' David Saltonstall recently wrote, Giuliani "never shrank from defending his image as mayor" but "as a businessman he's gone a step further" trademarked his own name. The "unusual step" states that "trade names and trademarks 'Rudolph Giuliani or 'Giuliani Partners LLC'...shall not be used...without prior written consent." Doing anything that "tarnishes, degrades disparages or reflects adversely on the Giuliani name" will be "grounds for terminating the contract." The trademarking of his name underscores a central question of his candidacy, wrote Saltonstall: “How will his roster of mostly private business clients play when viewed through the harsh prism of presidential campaign politics?”

Giuliani spokesperson Sunny Mindel’s react, on whether Rudy will release a list of clients, said: "We are reviewing that right now. But I would reiterate that voters are sophisticated enough to distinguish between public sector and private sector, and they know leadership when they see it"

Hello?

This simply isn’t realistic, and the fact this was even uttered for the record (although in her defense, what else could she say?... as its clear events and hounding from the media are outpacing Rudy Inc.’s ability to process political reality) makes it quite clear the business side and the political side are far from being in synch.

With smart, high quality people like Chris Henick around him (by far his most experienced national operative), Rudy’s got a shot to stay competitive with McCain and Romney – at least for a few more months to buy time to see if he can get his structural act together.

But that’s not likely to happen, and he will most likely decide not to run by the end of 2007’s first quarter. It’s also the smart play for him personally, as well as for his business. Fairly or unfairly, the last two weeks of bad press is just the tip of the iceberg if he decides to stay in this game, and he’s not close to being able to withstand legitimate scrutiny.

NYT Acquisition of Jeff Zeleny Brings New Energy to Moribund Washington Bureau

The increasingly moribund Washington bureau of the New York Times is getting a huge new boost of fresh, creative energy as the Chicaco Tribune's Jeff Zeleny joins the Times to "to cover the intersection of politics and money and to tackle investigative projects about political corruption," according to Times DC bureau chief, Phil Taubman.

Zeleny's political coverage of the 2004 presidential contest was always a must-read, and he brings some star power to match Anne Kornblut, now basically covering Team Hillary in the runup to '08.

Here's the press release from Taubman:

I'm pleased to let you know that Jeff Zeleny of The Chicago Tribune will be joining the bureau later this month to cover the intersection of politics and money and to tackle investigative projects about political corruption. Those of you who have competed with Jeff on political coverage in recent years know he is one of the most enterprising, skilled reporters in Washington, as well as a fine writer. If you don't know Jeff or his work, take a look at his lively, revealing coverage of Senator Barack Obama.

Jeff has been The Trib's national political correspondent since 2001. Before that, he was a general assignment reporter. He was a member of The Trib team that won the Pulitzer Prize in explanatory journalism for documenting gridlock in the nation's air traffic system. Jeff, a Nebraska native, started his career at The Des Moines Register.

Clinton Forces Mounting Effective Assault Against ABC-TV

The multi-front pressure Clinton Administration forces have placed on ABC-TV regarding the pending "docu-drama" surrounding the run-up to 9/11 is paying off, with ABC now on the defensive and production consultant Tom Kean positioning himself as an advocate for script and scene edits.

Howie Kurtz's article in the Washington Post this morning makes it appear as though the Clinton people won't be satisfied until the program is moved off of network television and on to cable -- like CBS did with it's Reagan docu-drama -- or even killed outright.

Despite the weak, anemic and generally incompetent foreign policy foreign policy record of the Clinton Administration, ABC clumsily opened the door to criticism by essentially admitting some scenes were "dramatized" and not factual.

With the program to be aired so close to a critical election, it seems foolish to have even moved forward with this program in the first place -- especially when the 9/11 Commission itself is being used to legitimize the program.

Look for more pressure on ABC to cave further, and for Bob Iger to take even more heat.

Bottom line: the Clinton forces have shown themselves quite effective in shaping the nature of the ABC program as a fraud, even though it's not.

Even Bill Bennett is saying on CNN this morning that ABC needs to correct the record, the scenes, and the nature of the program.

"If you want to make a case against the Clinton Administration, fine, but do so on facts."

Agreed.

Cuomo Severely Wounded by Voice Investitative Piece

Today’s Jonathan Hicks/Pat Healy New York Times follow-up to Wayne Barrett’s Village Voice investigative piece regarding Andrew Cuomo’s ties to a controversial businessman, Andrew Farkas, is striking in that it demonstrates the extent to which Cuomo and his supporters worked to postpone the Voice’s publication of the story until after the Democratic primary.

Putting aside the actual story itself, which has planted the seeds for a damaging series of legit follow-up print and TV stories at the worst possible time for Cuomo, one gets the sense Andy Cuomo is quite prepared to have an ethics dual with Jeanine Pirro, but unprepared to handle this bad press with Mark Green’s campaign still on life support.

Beyond the standard attempt to douse the flames of Barrett’s findings with a diversionary news conference focusing upon endorsements of marginal news value, the stalling moves by Cuomo and his lawyer, reported in today’s Times piece, shows how desperate Cuomo was to push the story back until the hoped-for general election against Pirro.

Beyond the standard libel letter sent to the Voice in hope of delaying publication, the fact Cuomo spent two hours on the phone with Barrett, reported in today’s NYT piece, is remarkable.

Whatever one thinks of Wayne Barrett, he is the last reporter anyone, anywhere, would want to spend two hours on the phone with. That must have been some conversation – and one should be curious how much was on the record, on background and off the record; a very dangerous call which shows just how concerned Cuomo really is.

At the diversionary City Hall news conference yesterday to lay out the endorsements, the Times reported “Mr. Cuomo sidestepped reporters’ questions about his relationship with Mr. Farkas, saying first that he had not read the article and then saying that it described that relationship incorrectly.”

That type of obfuscation will work for a news cycle or two, but the Cuomo body language and gut feel one gets today is that the wolf pack is getting ready to shred its quarry, and that Cuomo and his people need to have their A game to beat back the story, change the subject – whatever. And they should not underestimate and simply discount Pirro, despite her problems, who is the only major statewide GOP candidate with a shot in November.

While Mark Green is clearly and obviously a beneficiary of this development and turn in the race, so is Pirro, for now.

Lieberman Josh Isay Acquisition a Boost

As first reported by the NYT Empire Zone reports, Josh Isay is coming aboard as campaign director to steer this front-running but uncertain vessel towards judgment day in just over two months.

This'll help get a little of the joe-mentum mojo back, it's a good bet.

With all the staffing tumult in Lieberman's campaign, and a voracious world press corps on the doorstep, Isay is as well positioned experience-wise as any potential campaign operative to take on this humongous gig.

His management of Chuck Schumer's 1998 Senate campaign against incumbent Al D'Amato was quite well done, and having had plenty of experience dealing with the NYC tabloid press helps him enormously in this unpredictable, explosive media environment.

We'll just have to see how well he works with Neil Newhouse... that'll be interesting. Regardless, this is a big move for Lieberman. The Lamont campaign's skill level deficit just got a little wider.

Lance Tarrance Resurfaces into GOP Campaign World in a Big Way

The Hotline item today reporting that GOP polling guru Lance Tarrance has signed on with John McCain's Straight Talk America PAC is an interesting and significant development in the GOP '08 primary competition, which is well underway.

Lance, along with Arthur Finkelstein, Bob Teeter and perhaps a few others are pioneers in the pantheon of pollsters -- GOP or otherwise. It's also good to see him resurface in such a public manner.

Here's the press release excerpt from the Hotline:

GOP strategist Lance Tarrance has signed on with Sen. John McCain's Straight Talk America PAC as a senior adviser. McCain: "I am delighted Lance will be lending his considerable talents to Straight Talk America. He has been a longstanding central player in electing Republicans to office, and I am grateful Straight Talk will benefit from the strategic experience of such a distinguished professional." Tarrance: "I appreciate Senator McCain's commitment to maintaining a Republican majority through the 2006 election cycle, and I am glad to be a part of his effort." Tarrance is one half of RT Strategies, with Dem Thomas Riehle. The two produce the Cook Political Report/RT Strategies poll. The firm has no campaign clients this cycle (release, 8/2).

Recalling reserve power in the memory banks, the last John Weaver/Lance Tarrance hook-up was with the 1990 Texas GOP gubernatorial primary with Rep. Kent Hance, who lost the primary to West Texas oilman (as he was then characterized) Clayton Williams, for whom i worked.

The general election, with good 'ol Ann Richards as the victor, is history, and another story in itself.

For Lance, a Texan, i'm pretty sure Hance was his last joint venture with Weaver. The likelihood, today, of this having a happier ending, is quite good.

Brick by brick, and constituency by constituecy, this McCain gig is moving methodically down the track. Lance Tarrance is a huge sign-up.

Gordon Hensley